By THOMAS HARTWELL, ESTI AFANADOR
AND CHRISTIANI FERNANDEZ
The 2016 presidential campaign has
been one that has, in many ways, strayed from the normal workings of U.S.
elections, with the season’s rhetoric centered around the anger and distrust of
a “corrupt Washington.” While both sides have seen revolutionary political strategies
and several broken ballot records, the Republican party’s election has
undeniably been the more colorful of the two, and Donald Trump has captured
voters’ attention. The Republican race to the general election is narrowing, and
the Trump campaign seems to be rallying the needed public support to face the
Democrats in November.
“The Trump phenomenon – no one saw
this coming. No one really understands why it’s happening – what’s going on –
but I’ve got some ideas,” said political expert Kerwin Swint.
Swint is an author, speaker and
professor of political science at Kennesaw State University. He has run
campaigns, written books and his work has appeared in several national and
international media outlets. Swint said that the “Trump phenomenon” as well as
this campaign season’s obviously splintered GOP is something that has been in
the cards for a while and has the potential to have lasting effects.
“What’s going on in the Republican party is a real
revolution,” said Swint. “It is serious, it is dramatic, it is significant and
it’s going to have long-term consequences.”
While there are plenty of voters out there who have
voiced their discontent with Trump, more surprisingly, said Swint, is the
amount of resistance Trump is receiving from the, so-called, establishment
Republicans. The establishment fears that a Trump nomination means a Clinton
victory, but it goes beyond that.
“The other part of their thinking … is, ‘Good Lord, he
might win,’ which might be worse,” said Swint. “President Trump would pay no
attention or very little attention to the establishment.”
Swint also said that a number of Republicans would
rather see Clinton win the general election than Trump – a party line-crossing
that has not been seen in decades.
Trump has appealed, most abundantly, to white,
blue-collar workers who are tired of Washington and who are willing to cross
party lines to vote an “outsider” into the Oval Office. His ability to pick up
Independent votes has given him an edge in the delegate count, said Swint, but
the damage that he and others have been doing to the GOP this season has forced
some voters to display their unhappiness in other ways.
 |
| Delegate count in the 2016 presidential race so far, according to CNN. If a candidate does not receive the shown majority of delegates (1,237), the party goes to a convention, which nominates a candidate for the general election. Source: http://www.cnn.com/election/ |
Zac Carr, a 25-year-old Cobb County voter said his primary
vote was cast as a symbol of his own unhappiness with the candidates this
campaign season.
“I voted for Rand Paul
despite the fact that he is no longer running,” said Carr. “I asked for a non-partisan ballet because I, like George Washington, believe that the two-party
system only polarizes our country. I wanted to do my part by showing that I
believe non-partisan is preferred over Republican or Democrat.”
Carr said that the
“nastiness” in the Republican race forced his hand and initiated his
Independent vote.
Lott Middlemas, a
Florida voter and international relations and Chinese double major at the
University of South Carolina, agreed that the GOP race has been ugly, but said
that its dirty tactics might be good for the number of voters in a general
election.
“I think that voter turnout on both sides will increase
noticeably for both parties as a result of the inflammatory politics of the
Republican party during this election cycle,” said Middlemas. “The Republicans
have been talking for years about expanding their base of support by appealing
to minorities, but I don't think they'll see that as being necessary anymore
since they've managed to draw out many more white voters than usual without
having to soften their stances on economic and social issues that are often
important to minority voters.”
The Democrats, said Middlemas, will turnout in larger
numbers simply because of their fear of a Trump presidency and Clinton, he
said, will beat Trump handily.
Not so fast, says
Swint. A Clinton win isn’t such a sure-fire thing in a head-to-head.
“There
are people assuming that Trump wouldn’t have a chance in a general election
against Hillary Clinton. I’m not necessarily in agreement with that,” he said.
“One of the strengths of Trump is that he’s put together a pretty broad
coalition … It’s certainly not a slam dunk [for Clinton].”
It is his ability to appeal to groups of varying
demographics and political opinion that potentially makes Trump dangerous, said
Swint.
Yet another scenario
in the Republican race is a nomination by a convention. Trump leads by about
100 delegates with 460, but he does have to get through a still very present
Ted Cruz, and some wonder if the other Republican candidates may be able to
pull enough delegates away from Trump to prevent his receiving a majority
(1,237 delegates) and force the party to the convention. In this scenario, said
Swint, the Republican leadership runs the risk, should they nominate someone
other than Trump, of losing grip on their party.
“I think if they do take it away from [Trump] at the
convention, I think he absolutely will run independent,” said Swint. “And I think
at that point, he would be real interested in just wrecking the party for the
Republicans.”
A non-Trump convention
nominee would not only anger Republican voters, said Swint, but it would also
cause “wheeling and dealing” between presidential candidates, state governments
and others – precisely the kind of Washington antics voters are tired of.
According to
Middlemas, though, Republican voters don’t need to worry about a convention.
“Super Tuesday cemented Donald Trump's supremacy in this
race,” he said. “Sen. Cruz might be able to win a few more states, but Trump
will certainly have a majority of delegates by the time the Republican national
convention rolls around.”
Whether or not Trump has solidified
his nomination remains to be seen, but polls with only Trump and Clinton’s name
on them have begun to show up. Current CNN polls
show either Democrat defeating Trump in November, but November is still miles
down the road, said Swint.
“The
general election [polls] right now are meaningless,” said Swint. “The
election’s months and months away. We’re going to have coalitions, we’re going
to have world events, we’re going to have economic developments that are going
to affect that.”
All
we can do now, said Swint, is wait and watch.
