Confirmation Bias & Party In-Fighting

To understand confirmation bias in the media I started with two stories by Salon. While the first piece starts out wonky, seemingly very issues-oriented, it gets down to confirming a bias Salon readers may have, especially as we get closer to summer (the conventions) and fall (the general election).

One paragraph starts, “Unfortunately, neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump — the two leading presidential candidates right now — inspire much confidence that climate change will be a priority for their administrations.”

The very next paragraph starts, “While a Clinton presidency could likely have undesirable consequences for the environment, a Trump presidency would almost certainly be catastrophic.”

Sen. Sanders is briefly mentioned, but the idea is that now is a good time to prepare to vote for Secy. Clinton, because the alternative could be the ‘catastrophic’ presidency of Donald Trump.

The second piece from Salon talks about Democratic Party unity and the current debates the party are having. The piece seems very balanced, but leaves those desiring to confirm their Clinton bias with something to go off of, “Hillary Clinton’s backers and supporters, I suspect, will ultimately get some version of the party unity they’re clamoring for, and most likely the president they want too.”

In contrast to Salon, I headed over to Breitbart to see what their coverage looked like.

Interestingly enough Breitbart takes more of a hard news approach. In their first article there is reporting of some now former Colorado Republicans who have left the party because of what happened at state conventions over the weekend. This confirms a bias that Republicans may have against Donald Trump and that Trump supporters have of Republicans.

The second piece follows this same theme. It is hard news and shows similar conflicts. The Colorado GOP tweeted #NeverTrump, but then later deleted it and now claim to be investigating into the matter.

Media Frames on the 2016 Presidential Race

As we get closer to the conventions for each respective political party, horse race journalism increases. Frames and narratives begin to look more nuanced and pronounced. On the Democratic side, the focus on delegates and Hillary Clinton's lead in super delegates seems to be a main concern for Bernie Sanders. Clinton continues to lead in pledged delegates, but the Democratic party elites who back her put her even more over the edge. According to polls, Sanders defeats Trump in most states in wider margins than Clinton, meaning he receives more support from Independent voters.

According to a Politico article, Democratic senators are urging Sen. Sanders to stop attacking Clinton because it hurts her in the general election against Trump. Sanders does not seem to be letting up. In an email to supporters, he states that Clinton is fundraising from wealthy campaign donors while he receives money from average Americans. Sanders has out-raised Clinton in multiple months by a wide margin. He gets the most individual donations out of most presidential candidates. Clinton just recently reached her one millionth individual donation when Sanders has had 5 million in the last month and 2 million individual contributions this month. Sanders won Utah, Idaho, and the Democrats Abroad primary by large margins and received more pledged delegates than Clinton even though she won the Arizona Primary.

Democratic elites seem to agree that Clinton is flawed, but she is going to be the nominee. They want Sanders to drop out and unite behind her. Sanders at this point does not seem inclined to do that. The spin on this article is that Sanders has no chance and the only way to stop Trump is to unite behind Clinton. Sen. Claire McCaskill called Trump a "baffoon" and believed that the Sanders/Clinton fight was nothing compared to Trump. There seems to be some conflict between Democratic elites and the Sanders' campaign, but overall they believe Sanders "will do the right thing" and campaign for Clinton. There are about 24 states that haven't voted yet including delegate rich states like California, New York, and Wyoming. The Sanders campaign insists that Sen. Sanders is a better general election candidate than Clinton and they encourage super delegates to switch to their side.

On the GOP side, Republicans are worried that Donald Trump could lose them the House and possibly the Senate. Trump's divisive rhetoric is alienating a number of Americans and this may hurt Republicans chances at securing seats in Congress. Some GOP members believe Trump could get Democrats to vote for him in the Fall. The House Republicans have mostly remained silent on the rise of Trump, Politico reports. As of right now, it's clear the the Republican Party is in disarray and there is no unity among them. Similarly, the Democratic establishment and the DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is getting a lot of backlash from Democrats and even a primary opponent has emerged to go against her. Many agree though that the Republican establishment has lost control of their grassroots movement which includes Donald Trump and the Tea Party. The conflict between the GOP elites and their constituents who are going for Trump is much more devastating than what's going on with the Democratic Party. Trump has a broad coalition of support from new voters, Republicans, and even Democrats. The GOP have aided in the rise of Trump over the many years and this could impact the party in a significant way for future elections to come.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has completed switched her attention to the general election. Her campaign believes they have won the nomination and she is attacking Trump more often now and ignoring Sanders. At a speech to a pro-Israel lobby group, she said Trump's neutral stance on the Israel and Palestine conflict shows he does not understand foreign policy. Many Jewish groups also are not fond of Trump. The New York Times article shows the conflict between Republicans, Trump, and Clinton. It also highlights Clinton's policy towards Israel.  Clinton also said she would use military force against Iran if they violated the agreement in the Iran deal. She spoke extremely aggressively on making sure Israel remains an ally of the United States and how she would increase relations with the region. Sanders being the only Jewish candidate to not attend the pro-Israel speech caused a stir among pro-Israel groups. However, Sanders requested to speak to AIPAC via satellite, but they changed their policy and did not allow that this year at the conference. Instead Sanders outlined his Middle East foreign policy plan to a crowd in Utah.

Media Framing and the 2016 Presidential Election

This first clip certainly frames itself in discussion of the horse race. It points out that Sen. Sanders needs 65% of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. The clip shows his polling and the anchor is quoted saying, “No poll in the upcoming states shows Sanders winning by enough of a margin.”

While the clip also talks about Sen. Sanders policies on immigration, that policy talk is framed around whether or not the guest, Rep. Raul Grijalva, believes that Sanders’ policies and campaign events in recent days can help him win on ‘Western Tuesday’ in the states of Arizona, Utah and Idaho (Dem).

This clip focuses on conflict between Sanders and Secy. Clinton ahead of ‘Western Tuesday’. This clip features a Clinton supporter/delegate, Arizona Vice Mayor Karin Uhlich. The crux of the Clinton campaigns criticism comes from a vote Sanders cast in 2007 for an immigration bill drafted by the late Ted Kennedy.

This article discusses Trump’s ‘complex relationship with Israel’.

In the article it is said that Trump’s rhetoric concerning Muslims has been a point of criticism among Israeli’s political class. The Likud party (which Prime Minister Netanyahu belongs to) “… condemned Trump for denigrating the country’s large minority of Muslim citizens after he called for an indefinite ban on Muslims entering the United States.”

The article also recounts when Trump was booed at a Republican Jewish Coalition forum for refusing to, “… say whether he considered Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel.”

This last clip asks, “Who Is John Kasich”. In the clip it is said that Kasich is not a, “… run-of-the-mill Republican.” The video notes that he is a fan of The Grateful Dead and that he was the youngest person ever elected to the Ohio senate (at the age of 26). 

Republican party aims to trump Trump as candidate furthers his delegate lead

By THOMAS HARTWELL, ESTI AFANADOR AND CHRISTIANI FERNANDEZ

The 2016 presidential campaign has been one that has, in many ways, strayed from the normal workings of U.S. elections, with the season’s rhetoric centered around the anger and distrust of a “corrupt Washington.” While both sides have seen revolutionary political strategies and several broken ballot records, the Republican party’s election has undeniably been the more colorful of the two, and Donald Trump has captured voters’ attention. The Republican race to the general election is narrowing, and the Trump campaign seems to be rallying the needed public support to face the Democrats in November.

“The Trump phenomenon – no one saw this coming. No one really understands why it’s happening – what’s going on – but I’ve got some ideas,” said political expert Kerwin Swint.

Swint is an author, speaker and professor of political science at Kennesaw State University. He has run campaigns, written books and his work has appeared in several national and international media outlets. Swint said that the “Trump phenomenon” as well as this campaign season’s obviously splintered GOP is something that has been in the cards for a while and has the potential to have lasting effects.

“What’s going on in the Republican party is a real revolution,” said Swint. “It is serious, it is dramatic, it is significant and it’s going to have long-term consequences.”

While there are plenty of voters out there who have voiced their discontent with Trump, more surprisingly, said Swint, is the amount of resistance Trump is receiving from the, so-called, establishment Republicans. The establishment fears that a Trump nomination means a Clinton victory, but it goes beyond that.

“The other part of their thinking … is, ‘Good Lord, he might win,’ which might be worse,” said Swint. “President Trump would pay no attention or very little attention to the establishment.”

Swint also said that a number of Republicans would rather see Clinton win the general election than Trump – a party line-crossing that has not been seen in decades.

Trump has appealed, most abundantly, to white, blue-collar workers who are tired of Washington and who are willing to cross party lines to vote an “outsider” into the Oval Office. His ability to pick up Independent votes has given him an edge in the delegate count, said Swint, but the damage that he and others have been doing to the GOP this season has forced some voters to display their unhappiness in other ways.

  

Delegate count in the 2016 presidential race so far, according to CNN.
If a candidate does not receive the shown majority of delegates (1,237),
the party goes to a convention, which nominates a candidate for the general
election. Source: http://www.cnn.com/election/ 

Zac Carr, a 25-year-old Cobb County voter said his primary vote was cast as a symbol of his own unhappiness with the candidates this campaign season.

“I voted for Rand Paul despite the fact that he is no longer running,” said Carr. “I asked for a non-partisan ballet because I, like George Washington, believe that the two-party system only polarizes our country. I wanted to do my part by showing that I believe non-partisan is preferred over Republican or Democrat.”

Carr said that the “nastiness” in the Republican race forced his hand and initiated his Independent vote.

Lott Middlemas, a Florida voter and international relations and Chinese double major at the University of South Carolina, agreed that the GOP race has been ugly, but said that its dirty tactics might be good for the number of voters in a general election.

“I think that voter turnout on both sides will increase noticeably for both parties as a result of the inflammatory politics of the Republican party during this election cycle,” said Middlemas. “The Republicans have been talking for years about expanding their base of support by appealing to minorities, but I don't think they'll see that as being necessary anymore since they've managed to draw out many more white voters than usual without having to soften their stances on economic and social issues that are often important to minority voters.”

The Democrats, said Middlemas, will turnout in larger numbers simply because of their fear of a Trump presidency and Clinton, he said, will beat Trump handily.

Not so fast, says Swint. A Clinton win isn’t such a sure-fire thing in a head-to-head.

“There are people assuming that Trump wouldn’t have a chance in a general election against Hillary Clinton. I’m not necessarily in agreement with that,” he said. “One of the strengths of Trump is that he’s put together a pretty broad coalition … It’s certainly not a slam dunk [for Clinton].”

It is his ability to appeal to groups of varying demographics and political opinion that potentially makes Trump dangerous, said Swint.

Yet another scenario in the Republican race is a nomination by a convention. Trump leads by about 100 delegates with 460, but he does have to get through a still very present Ted Cruz, and some wonder if the other Republican candidates may be able to pull enough delegates away from Trump to prevent his receiving a majority (1,237 delegates) and force the party to the convention. In this scenario, said Swint, the Republican leadership runs the risk, should they nominate someone other than Trump, of losing grip on their party.

“I think if they do take it away from [Trump] at the convention, I think he absolutely will run independent,” said Swint. “And I think at that point, he would be real interested in just wrecking the party for the Republicans.”

A non-Trump convention nominee would not only anger Republican voters, said Swint, but it would also cause “wheeling and dealing” between presidential candidates, state governments and others – precisely the kind of Washington antics voters are tired of.

According to Middlemas, though, Republican voters don’t need to worry about a convention.

“Super Tuesday cemented Donald Trump's supremacy in this race,” he said. “Sen. Cruz might be able to win a few more states, but Trump will certainly have a majority of delegates by the time the Republican national convention rolls around.”

Whether or not Trump has solidified his nomination remains to be seen, but polls with only Trump and Clinton’s name on them have begun to show up. Current CNN polls show either Democrat defeating Trump in November, but November is still miles down the road, said Swint.

“The general election [polls] right now are meaningless,” said Swint. “The election’s months and months away. We’re going to have coalitions, we’re going to have world events, we’re going to have economic developments that are going to affect that.”

All we can do now, said Swint, is wait and watch.

Georgia, Super Tuesday does not clarify Democratic race

Jessica Fisher, Dylan Maynard and Samuel Rusch

Secretary Clinton's and Senator Sander's delegate count across the United States.
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Voters will go to the polls to cast their vote for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees in six states including Ohio, Florida Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and The North Marianas Islands Tuesday.

Tuesday’s vote is known as Super Tuesday 3. Georgia joined eleven other states to cast their vote in the presidential primaries on March 1, also known as Super Tuesday or the SEC Primary in this election cycle.

Zach McDowell hard at work for KSU for Bernie

Looking back over the SEC Primary Zach McDowell of Kennesaw State University for Bernie expressed disappointment as well as optimism.

“I can’t say it didn’t sting a little bit just because of all the work we have put in here in Kennesaw and the things I’ve done through the campaign office while I was here,” said McDowell. “The fact that we won four states is amazing, considering where we were a year ago. We were down sixty points nationally, we weren’t relevant in any state at all.”

Dr. Andrew Pieper of Kennesaw State University (KSU) noted that politics are brutal.

“Democrats have varying rates of approval in the South,” said Pieper. “Even if Sanders wins this state [Wisconsin], he probably won’t achieve greater numbers in this category.”

Pieper believes that Sanders will continue to have a hard time among black voters.

“Addressing issues that the black and African American communities face is something that is clearly against how he [Sanders] operates.”

Dr. Andrew Pieper working in his office

African American vote or no, McDowell says that Sen. Sanders will make it to the general election.

“I will always reaffirm that no matter what happens Bernie Sanders will make it to the general election, it’s just a question of how and when that decision is made.”

When asked about Sen. Sander’s poor performance in the south McDowell believes that he could perform well against a Republican in the region.

“Head-to-head with the Republican candidate I have no worry about him doing well in the South,” McDowell said. “Once you force the hand of Republicans and Democrats into voting, are you going to vote for Sanders, or for Trump, Cruz or Rubio? I think that decision is a lot easier than what a lot of people are being faced with [between] Bernie or Hillary.”

The election gets more bleak for McDowell if Sen. Sanders doesn’t win the Democratic nomination.

“With the general I can only say what I’m going to do, I’m not going to tell anyone else what to do,” McDowell said. “I’ll either write Bernie’s name in on the ballot or I won’t vote. I will not be voting for Hillary Clinton if she’s the nominee because to me she’s the extenuation of establishment politics and that’s not going to cut it. I’m a registered independent.”

McDowell and Pieper feel similarly about superdelegates. Superdelegates are a part of the Democratic Party nomination process. Party officials as well as elected democrats get a vote at the convention for their choice of which candidate they would like to see as their party’s nominee.

“I almost don’t count superdelegates,” said Pieper. “The superdelegates will do precisely what they did in 2008. If someone secures the majority of the other delegates, they’re going to vote that way because it would be a break in the Democratic Party if they overturned the will of the voters.”

McDowell thinks that superdelegates will make their way to the support of Sen. Sanders.

“The superdelegates have had their allegiances pledged for over a year now,” McDowell said. “Hillary had 400 delegates pledge a year ago, before the campaign even officially started. But they’re changing, don’t let anyone tell you that the campaign is over because she has all the super delegates. They haven’t voted and they can change their vote any time. Here in Georgia, State Senator Vincent Fort has already changed his stance.He is the example that many superdelegates are going to follow.”

If Secretary Clinton ultimately wins the Democratic presidential nomination the Benghazi scandal may follow her into the general election.

“Objectively it’s a non-issue,” said Pieper. “I think most of it’s made up. Regarding her emails, she did what she did before it was classified, but it’s still a political issue. It feeds into a narrative that kind of already existed. She’s untrustworthy. She’ll do anything to get elected.”

Tyler Gonzales, a Clinton supporter, is fearful of a Trump presidency.

"One side of my family is Mexican, his bigoted remarks really woke me up to my laziness in regards to pursuing political representation that looks out for me and my family."

Gonzales is a first time voter who is drawn to the Democratic Party because of what they stand for.

"Equality," said Gonzales. "Simple. The Republicans don't hold the same definition. Equal opportunity. Opportunity is everything."

Pieper spoke on what may be considered Sen. Sander’s biggest vulnerability, his stance as a Democratic Socialist.

“Sanders is pretty much your typical European liberal,” Pieper said. “Hillary has been called a socialist, and so has Bill, Obama too. Socialism is a really bad word in this country. It’s so strong that people don’t think about it and say it’s easy to use. The reason socialism has such a bad connotation is because it’s about the Cold War and communism and Bernie Sanders is not a communist by any stretch of the imagination.”

McDowell ended on a positive note.

“Going forward what I would say is to Bernie’s credit and to his campaign’s credit he really has started a political revolution, there are people all over the country, people slightly older than me running for local and state office,” McDowell said.

When asked about the results from Michigan's primary McDowell said called it 'The Michigan miracle' and said nothing else.

Clinton has 1,223 delegates, Sanders has 574 delegates, Trump has 456 delegates, Cruz has 359 delegates, Rubio has 151 delegates and Kasich has 54 delegates as of March 10.

In Georgia Clinton won 72 delegates, Sanders won 28, Trump won 40, Rubio won 14 and Cruz won 18.

The Democrats need 2,383 delegates in order to secure their party’s nomination, the Republicans need 1,237 delegates.

The Democratic party's presidential primary delegate count by state.
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Analysis of the Presidential Election: Sanders, Trump and Clinton

Prior to the year 2016, we would have predicted a presidential race around this time to be uninteresting and not a lot of changes from the politicians we have seen in the past. What voters now call establishment politicians or politicians who are beholden to big money special interests, voters in the past would have just called them normal politicians. They would have normally embraced these politicians who pandered to their concerns most adequately. This political technique does not work in modern day politics. This is partly due to the fact of increasing technology, globalization, and social media. People just do not buy into political speak the way they used to. The Internet has provided a way to immediately expose politicians who lie. The mainstream media has provided narratives and horse race journalism, which still exists today, but as we have seen with the rise of Donald Trump, the media may not be relevant in certain regards. The media's attention and scrutiny of Trump's false statements and outrageous behavior may just be helping Trump. People don't trust the media as much as they used to.

Many blame the media for perpetuating the rise of Republican front runner Donald Trump, but they ignore the fact that the Republican establishment created Trump. Right wing media like Fox News and prominent conservative figures like Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin, and Sean Hannity have all played a role in assisting Trump. The birther movement, which started with Trump and the rise of the Tea Party in Congress all lead up to this moment in American politics. These figures may have done this inadvertently or on purpose. At this point, it's the unpredictability of Trump and the lack of historical examples that makes Trump's rise to power particularly worrisome.

On the Democratic side, we notice another divide between, once again establishment politicians and grassroots activists. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders do have profound differences. Sanders upset win in Michigan may prove a tide turning against Clinton. Sanders even received a larger share of African American support than he had in the past. Five Thirty Eight called Sanders' win: "Sanders's win in Michigan was one of the greatest upsets in modern political history." There are certain profound and amazing things happening in both political parties and I believe history will decide if these instances will have a profound affect on presidential politics and political parties in the future.

Clinton has the backing of the entire Democratic establishment and even some neocon Republicans may consider her for the general election if she were to go against Trump. Bernie Sanders has received the endorsement of former Bill Clinton Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich and former DNC vice chair Congressman Tulsi Gabbard. These endorsement may represent a particular divide among Democrats, who view Clinton as to tied into Wall Street or big money interests. Americans who see powerful lobbyists and wealthy campaign contributors as a problem in an American democratic society. Gabbard believes Clinton is too hawkish in her foreign policy and said Clinton has supported wars of interventionist regime change in Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Reich has stated that Clinton is the best president for the political system we have now and Sanders is the best president to change the system for the betterment of getting money out of politics. It's understood that Barack Obama had a super PAC and raised money from Wall Street, but he was never criticized for that because he was working within the system. There was not an alternative politician who did not accept money from Wall Street until a democratic socialist Senator from Vermont came into the race.

The concept of citizen media has been prominent since the 2008 election. The news agency Motherjones received footage of Romney saying 47% of the country will not vote for him, which was seen as dismissive. It was attributed to him losing to Obama. In 2016, citizen journalism is even more prominent. A reporter from the news organization called the Intercept once approached Hillary Clinton on film and asked her why she won't release her Goldman Sachs transcripts. Clinton at first dismissed the question and that goes viral. At a Democratic debate, moderator Chuck Todd asks Clinton if she would release the transcripts and she says she will if everyone will release their transcripts as well. This incident does not look good for Clinton and it immediately backfires. At Democratic debates and town halls, Clinton is repeatedly asked about the transcripts and she gives the same non-answer. It adds to her high dishonesty and low trustworthiness ratings in regards to her FBI investigation and other issues. The issue was finally raised by Bernie Sanders himself, who now calls for Clinton to release her speeches as part of his stump speech.

Sanders rise is attributed to another populist Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren who criticizes the power that Wall Street has over Congress. She has also scrutinized Hillary Clinton by proclaiming she views powerful interest groups as her constituency. The current Democratic National Committee Chairwoman, Congresswoman Debbie Wassermann Schultz, has been criticized by other members of the Democratic Party for overturning the ban on lobbyists that Obama implemented in 2008 and also for her support of loan sharks. 

But in the grand scheme of things, Trump and Sanders resonate with voters who want someone in the White House that is an outsider and do not represent corporate donors. However, they are opposite in terms of how they want to accomplish their goals. Sanders was a congressman, mayor and now a senator. Trump was a reality television star and businessman and has no political experience. However, as we have seen with these two candidates both Sanders and Trump set the agenda for what the discussion is going to be at debates. They have both impacted the presidential race in different ways. If the general election were to be Trump versus Sanders then that would be something we have never seen in the history of American presidential elections.

Learning Political Communication in Real Time

It seems undeniable that the media has acted as a kingmaker in this election. According to The Atlantic Donald Trump has had more coverage than Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush combined, and at one point or another, both of those candidates had thought to be their parties inevitable nominees.

On social media, Donald Trump also dominates. He can hardly send out a single tweet without it becoming headlining breaking news. Clinton, who has invested a lot into social media, running a social media campaign stylized after Buzzfeed, is arguably not being advantaged by this particular investment. However, Senator Sanders is a strong social media candidate. His volunteers use social media to organize volunteer opportunities and have been doing so all across the country since the moment that Sen. Sanders announced his attention to run for president.

In a discussion of social media, it is important to understand that it seems that Snapchat has not served the candidates well throughout this process. In fact, while Clinton and Rubio have Snapchat, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have opted out.

One aspect that we have read about but have not been able to fully explore in this class is the presence of third parties. Trump has constantly left open the idea that he might run as an independent. Former Democratic candidate Jim Webb decided to not run as an independent. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg might still run as an independent, but if not there are still the nominees of the Libertarian and to a lesser degree the Green Party to consider. Certainly I could (and often do) tie this point back to the first one about media making kingmakers. The pundit class all too quickly will write off the Libertarian and Green Party nominees as unelectable.

A volunteer at a Bernie Sanders Rally at Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia.