Trump splits GOP, election a potential disaster

By: Kristen Bryan, Shazad Hamid and Adam Maeland

ATLANTA – Businessman Donald Trump took the lead in the Republican presidential race on Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016, after winning seven states.

According to delegates, however, Trump won only 37 more than his opponent Sen. Ted Cruz, who won three delegate rich states. With Trump in the lead, the media narrative is consistently on the prospect of a Trump nomination, but emphasizes the potential demise of the GOP.

Dr. Kerwin Swint speaks to students at Kennesaw State University

Political Science professor and political expert Dr. Kerwin Swint stated the GOP has always liked to nominate whoever is the biggest name in the party, going all the way back to 1980 when Ronald Reagan was nominated after he ran twice before.

Swint also stated the Democrats have been much more likely to nominate someone who comes up all of a sudden, but this year it seems as though the roles have reversed for both parties.

“Right now, the Trump phenomenon – that’s an insurgency, a huge controversial insurgency, whereas the Democrats are taking on the royalist sort of approach,” Swint said. “They’re going to nominate Hillary Clinton, obviously the biggest name and the most established name. The Trump thing represents some real differences.”

Because of this, there’s a real change happening in Washington this year, Swint said. The past few candidates have come from the GOP establishment, like elected officials or donors who have been around for some time, and with Trump being ahead this time, many GOP representatives are very unsatisfied with the kind of candidates being nominated.

“What’s going on in the Republican Party is a real revolution,” Swint said. “It is serious. It is dramatic. It is significant. It’s going to have long-term consequences. The Republican Party is undergoing dramatic change.”

Many of Trump’s supporters are mostly white, blue-collar, non-educated people, and he is taking advantage of his supporters’ beliefs by calling on the deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants, a ban on Muslims and building a wall on the Mexican border. These decisions are splitting the GOP between the establishment and the working class.

Based on the Republican debate on March 9, Navy veteran Dean Leonard, 41, is happy with the general views of the GOP, but believes Cruz should be the front-runner in this election. Leonard likes that Cruz was able to back up his plans with sound information. He also likes that Gov. John Kasich is the same way, and thinks that both should have a better chance at getting the GOP nomination than Trump.

“I like how the Republicans want to downsize the government. But if Trump gets the nomination, he won’t win against Hillary,” Leonard said.

Another voter, a registered independent says that he believes that “Trump is likely. He has a lot of large favorable states ahead and a lead. Cruz is possible, but he'd to have to over perform. A contested convention is possible, but it will require a strong showing from the combination of Kasich and Rubio.

I don't think the Republicans take the nomination from Trump if he has a clear lead. And I think it is already pretty much a two man race, so what I'd focus on is the combination of delegates Rubio and Kasich manage to accrue. If Trump can keep his lead over Cruz anywhere above half that number I don't even think there's a whisper of drama.”

Prior to Super Tuesday, many voters still had doubts about Trump’s chances at the nomination. However, after the results showed a strong showing for Trump then the atmosphere turned against his favor. Despite his primary and caucus wins, the Republican establishment is not enamored with Trump. However, the presidential candidates know they must gain the support from the Trump Republicans because some of them may be new to the party, are Independents, and even Democrats.

Trump has been able to resonate with these working class voters, but as Dr. Swint has stated the establishment lacks the ability to connect with voters the way Trump has been able to tap into their “economic anxieties.” Although, with Ted Cruz looming it may catch up Trump due to the close delegate count. However, Trump has the momentum and the outsider appeal, which Cruz tries to tap into because he also is anti-establishment and has no support in the U.S. Senate. This helps him make the case that he’s a true conservative.

According to the delegate count, if a candidate does not have 1237 delegates before the convention, the delegates must vote for the candidate who won their primary. It would be a huge problem if the establishment tried to take the nomination away from Trump at the convention because disenfranchised voters would be even more outraged, and it would cause problems.

Republicans would be sure to lose the general election at that point.

A lot of Trump supporters are independents and Reagan Democrats. Trump resonates with the working class voters because he knows how to speak well to their fears and the economic anxiety. Even some Republican establishment politicians actually prefer Clinton to Trump because he would ignore the GOP and their beliefs, and Clinton’s hawkish and neoconservative foreign policy is more appealing to them.

When talking with a college aged Republican Kendrick Thompson, who also happens to be African-American, about the state of the Republican race, Thompson felt that Donald Trump, while effective at gaining support from Reagan Democrats, turned many other groups away, primarily minorities. “I definitely think [Trump] is hurting the Republican Party’s appeal to minority voters,” stated Thompson.

Thompson, a Rubio supporter, said he was fearful Trump would hurt the general election chances of the Republican Party as a whole. Of his support for Rubio, Thompson said, “I think he is well spoken and could help grow the party by appealing to new groups of Americans, but I’m disappointed in his performance so far.”

Ultimately, Dr. Swint states that the Republicans may elect the insurgent candidate this time, which is historically unusual for Republicans. If the establishment Republicans attempt to take away the nomination from Trump at the convention, that is if he wins enough delegates, then it may be disaster for the future of the Republican Party. At least in regards to the 2016 Presidential Election, Trump may have just added a third term for the Democratic Party.